Dutch TTF gas hit €310/MWh in August 2022 — roughly 20x the pre-crisis average — when Russian supply collapsed and EU storage refill became a question of survival. By early 2024 the price had fallen back into the €25–35 range and stayed there through 2025. In 2026 the market is operating in a wider, jumpier band and storage data does more of the macro lifting than headline supply.
Why storage replaced the supply story
Russian pipeline gas to Europe is at a fraction of pre-2022 volume. Norway and US LNG combined cover the bulk of the gap. With supply structurally replaced, the marginal question shifted from 'will we have enough?' to 'how much cushion?'. Storage fill percentage (tracked by Gas Infrastructure Europe) became the cleanest single number for that. Above 90% by November = bearish winter setup; below 75% = bullish risk premium.
What moves the storage path
- Weather — colder-than-normal draws faster, warmer slows refill.
- Industrial demand recovery — German chemicals and metals are price-sensitive, partial production has stayed offline through 2025.
- Asian LNG demand competition — Japan and South Korea bid for the same cargoes.
- Pipeline incidents — the 2022 Nord Stream sabotage taught the market that 'structural' supply is only as reliable as its physical security.
Trading implications
TTF intraday vol has structurally widened. The seasonal carry that pre-2022 traders relied on is more aggressive and noisier. Spread trades between Henry Hub and TTF capture the trans-Atlantic LNG arbitrage but with much wider basis volatility than the pre-crisis era.