For most of the post-2010 era the US 10-year Treasury yield was the single most informative price in financial markets. Equity sector rotation, gold, FX, credit spreads, crypto — almost everything had a stable beta to it. In 2026 the correlations have weakened or flipped sign for several asset classes. The reasons matter for how to read the next move.
Equity-yield correlation: weakening
The classic 'higher yields = lower stocks' relationship held tightly through 2022's bear market. It loosened in 2023 (stocks rallied despite higher yields) and has been intermittent since. The driver is that earnings growth came back faster than the discount-rate drag, allowing index prices to compound through the yield headwind. Sector dispersion is the more useful signal now — utilities and REITs still track inversely, mega-cap tech doesn't.
Gold-yield correlation: flipped
Pre-2022 gold tracked real yields (TIPS) tightly: real yields up, gold down. Since 2022 the relationship has been weaker and at points the wrong sign. Central-bank gold buying as a reserve diversification overlaid the rate trade and dominated it. Watch real yields for narrative confirmation, not for trade-trigger purity.
BTC-yield correlation: intermittent
Bitcoin loosely tracked NASDAQ during 2022's tightening cycle (yield up, both down), then decoupled with the spot ETF approval and the halving cycle. Current correlation is regime-dependent: in risk-off episodes both still sell off, but in cycle-driver weeks (ETF flows, on-chain activity) BTC moves independently.
What still works
Currency carry trades remain rate-differential plays. Front-end vs long-end Treasury spreads carry information about Fed-policy expectations vs term-premium. High-yield credit spreads still mirror the equity risk-on/off cycle. The broken correlations are mostly the cross-asset ones; the within-fixed-income relationships are intact.