A positive expectancy does not make an account safe — sizing does. This runs a thousand equity paths through your win rate and payoff to find how often the account gets to the loss level you care about.
| Risk / trade | Risk of ruin | Risk of drawdown | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.00 USD |
| 1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.00 USD |
| 2% · current | 0.4% | 1.2% | 25.00 USD |
| 3% | 2.4% | 13.2% | 25.00 USD |
| 5% | 10.6% | 60.4% | 25.00 USD |
| 10% | 38.5% | 99.6% | 25.00 USD |
The probability that a run of losses takes the account down to a defined loss level before the edge has time to assert itself. Both a good system and a bad one can ruin; the difference is how often.
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. Positive expectancy is necessary but not sufficient: a 60%-win system with a 3:1 payoff still ruins reliably if it risks 25% a trade.
1,000 independent equity paths of N trades each. Every trade compounds the current equity by +risk% × (win/loss ratio) on a win or −risk% on a loss. The result is the share of paths that touched your loss level.
Independent trades, a constant win rate and a constant payoff — none of which is exactly true in live markets, where losses cluster. Read the output as a lower bound on the real risk, not as a forecast.
PipSync is a signal execution tool. It does not provide trading signals, does not guarantee any trading results and is not investment advice. Trading leveraged products involves substantial risk of loss.